Tax Payment Trends for 2026: Supporting Business Growth Through Economic Recovery
Matt Edwards, Chief Executive Officer, TMNZ
As we move into 2026, New Zealand businesses are anticipating a turning point after navigating challenging economic conditions. Business confidence has surged to its highest level in nearly twelve years1, driven by aggressive central bank rate cuts and growing optimism about the recovery ahead. For business and tax advisors, this presents both opportunity and complexity.
At TMNZ, we’re seeing firsthand how evolving payment patterns are reshaping the way businesses manage their tax obligations, and we’re committed to supporting your clients’ growth throughout this pivotal year.
The Economic Landscape: Recovery with Caution
The New Zealand economy is projected to grow with real GDP expected to increase by 1.7% in 2025/26, rising to 3.4% in 2026/272, a welcome improvement after recent contraction. Business sentiment is notably strong, with manufacturers particularly optimistic about the year ahead.
However, the recovery is nuanced. While lower interest rates are providing relief to indebted businesses and the rural economy remains relatively robust, our urban centres continue to face headwinds. Unemployment is expected to peak around 5.5% in the March 2026 quarter, and inflation remains at the upper limit of the Reserve Bank’s target band. Core Crown tax revenue is forecast to rise as a share of GDP, from 27.3% in 2025/26 to 28.4% in 2029/303, largely driven by an improvement in the economy and the effect of wage growth moving people into higher tax bands. At TMNZ we have seen significant, double-digit year on year growth in tax deposits made by small and medium sized businesses, indicating that some businesses are expecting to be more profitable this year.
For advisors, this environment demands careful cashflow management. The gap between economic optimism and actual financial performance means that while businesses may be planning expansion, they’re also managing tighter margins and delayed investment decisions.
Emerging Tax Payment Trends
We’re observing several significant shifts in how advisors manage their clients’ tax obligations in 2026:
- Provisional tax calculation has become critical. In those industries that are struggling, many advisors are suggesting their clients to pay provisional tax based on actual cashflow rather than overpaying based on an uplift from the prior year liability.
- Tax pooling is gaining traction. More businesses are turning to tax pooling arrangements to manage provisional tax more efficiently, reducing the risk of underpayment penalties while avoiding the opportunity cost of overpayment. Tax advisors are increasingly encouraging their clients to pay their provisional tax through TMNZ. This trend reflects a more sophisticated approach to working capital management as businesses seek every advantage during the recovery phase.
- Tax payments are under scrutiny. With Inland Revenue’s increased focus on businesses with tax debt, advisors are setting up payment arrangements for provisional tax, while ensuring that clients’ GST and PAYE obligations are met by the due date.
How TMNZ’s Solutions Support Business Growth
At TMNZ, we recognise that effective tax payment management isn’t just about compliance – it’s about enabling growth for your clients. Our payment solutions are designed for the challenges businesses face in 2026:
- Flexible payment scheduling allows you to align your client’s tax payments with their actual cashflow patterns, particularly valuable when revenue remains uncertain. Rather than forcing provisional tax payments to fit rigid schedules, our payment solutions match to business rhythm.
- Integrated payment tracking provides real-time visibility across provisional tax obligations. For advisors managing multiple entities or complex group structures, this consolidated view eliminates the risk of missed deadlines and provides the data needed for strategic cashflow planning.
- Payment reliability matters more than ever. As your clients invest in growth initiatives, the last thing they need is a missed payment disrupting tax compliance or damaging their relationship with Inland Revenue.
Looking Ahead
The economic outlook for 2026 represents a genuine opportunity for New Zealand businesses. Capital investment is forecast to increase 6.1% in calendar 20264, its strongest pace of expansion since 2021. This is the environment where strategic tax payment management transforms from a compliance function into a growth enabler.
For advisors, the message is clear: businesses that can efficiently manage their tax obligations while preserving working capital for investment will be best positioned to capitalise on the recovery. At TMNZ, we’re committed to providing the payment tools that makes this possible.
As we navigate 2026 together, I encourage you to review your current tax payment processes. Are they supporting your clients’ growth objectives, or are they simply maintaining compliance? The difference matters, and TMNZ is here to help you bridge that gap.
1 New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Survey of Business Opinion, January 2026
2 New Zealand Treasury Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025
3 New Zealand Treasury Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025
4 BNZ Economic Forecast for 2026
How to manage business cashflow over the seasonal period
Summer’s here. A time for family, friends, and well-earned downtime. But for many small and medium-sized Kiwi businesses, it’s also one of the toughest periods for cashflow. The challenge is heightened for many sectors that experience a slow period in January and February, while provisional tax and GST payments are due on 15 January for businesses with a 31 March balance date.
This year brings additional pressure with the 2025/2026 Christmas and New Year public holidays falling midweek on Wednesdays and Thursdays. This creates a fragmented two-week period where many businesses will close or operate at reduced capacity.
Let’s look at why Christmas creates cashflow challenges and what options can help you navigate this seasonal period more smoothly.
Why Christmas creates cashflow challenges for NZ businesses
The period after Christmas is traditionally slow. For sectors like hospitality or retail, there’s a surge in demand before Christmas that makes the January drop-off particularly harsh.
Additional pressures businesses can come under include:
- business closures or reduced capacity over the break – less income generated
- employee incentive schemes and bonuses paid before Christmas – draining cash reserves right before the quiet period
- reduced consumer spending in January and February – as consumers apply more caution after the holiday spending surge
- inventory tied up in stock – particularly challenging for retail businesses with cash locked in unsold summer ranges
- slower bank processing times – public holidays and weekends can delay payments arriving in your account
Together, these create what many business owners know as the “summer squeeze” on cashflow, with added pressure to cash reserves with the 15 January provisional tax deadline.
The 15 January provisional tax deadline
With these seasonal challenges, it’s no surprise many businesses struggle to manage cashflow and meet the 15 January provisional tax deadline.
Unfortunately, Inland Revenue doesn’t factor in these seasonal challenges. They’ll charge 3.27% late payment penalties and 9.89% use of money interest (UOMI) if tax isn’t received on the due date (rates as at May 2025).
Many businesses find this timing particularly challenging given the seasonal slowdown and reduced cash reserves after the holiday period.
Ways to manage your Christmas cashflow
So what are your best options?
Many businesses take a proactive approach to their Christmas cashflow. Here are a few key areas to consider:
Accounts receivable – review outstanding invoices before the holiday period and follow up with customers to improve collection timing. Early December works well to encourage payment before businesses close for the break.
Supplier relationships – if you have good trading relationships and have been a reliable payer, consider discussing your payment schedules with suppliers over the seasonal period.
Planning ahead – create a cashflow forecast covering the December to February period. This helps identify potential gaps in advance, including reduced trading days, holiday bonuses, and the 15 January tax payment.
Every business situation is different. It’s worth discussing your specific circumstances with your accountant or financial adviser.
A smarter way to manage tax payments
Looking at your provisional tax payment timing? TMNZ offers a smarter alternative.
Tax pooling through TMNZ is approved by Inland Revenue and trusted by New Zealand businesses. It lets you defer provisional tax payments to a time that suits you, without incurring late payment penalties and UOMI.
It’s more affordable than many traditional forms of finance, doesn’t affect your existing credit facilities, and requires no credit checks or security.
You only pay back what you actually owe. If your tax liability is less than expected, you don’t need to repay the full amount. And the finance arrangement can be easily extended.
How it works
Say you need to defer a $5,000 provisional tax payment for 6 months. You’d pay TMNZ a one-off, tax-deductible interest amount, and we’d arrange the $5,000 provisional tax payment on your behalf.
The interest amount is based on the tax amount financed and the deferral period. In this instance, it would be roughly $130.
The provisional tax payment is held in an IRD account administered by Guardian Trust. They instruct IRD to transfer the tax into your IRD account when you repay the $5,000 principal in 6 months.
IRD treats the $5,000 provisional tax as paid on time once the transfer is processed. It’s that simple.
Key benefits of tax pooling:
- IRD-approved
- doesn’t impact your existing credit facilities
- no security or credit checks required
- flexibility to adjust if you owe less tax than expected
Planning ahead for the summer period
The businesses that navigate Christmas cashflow most successfully? They start planning early. Consider reviewing your cashflow position in October or November, before the holiday rush begins. This gives you time to understand your position and explore options that work for you.
Your accountant can help you assess your specific situation and what approaches might work for you, including whether tax pooling could be the right solution for managing your 15 January provisional tax obligations.
Take control of your summer cashflow
Christmas doesn’t have to be stressful for your cashflow. With forward planning and the right solutions, you can navigate the seasonal challenges while keeping your business on track.
Ready to ease your seasonal cashflow pressures? Learn more.
Need to calculate your provisional tax? Check out our Calculating Provisional tax guide.
Manage IR exposure with corporate tax pooling
With the 28 November provisional tax date fast approaching, now’s the perfect time to talk to larger clients about the benefits of TMNZ corporate tax pooling.
Tax pooling is an Inland Revenue-approved system to help New Zealand businesses manage their provisional tax. Instead of paying the IRD directly, taxpayers can purchase overpaid tax from other tax pool members and pay into the tax pool when it suits them.
As some businesses overpay tax when they have funds to spare, they help to cover other taxpayers that need a bit more time to meet their obligations. We like to think of it as businesses helping businesses.
TMNZ is proud to be New Zealand’s original tax pool, pioneering the concept in 2003. We haven’t looked back since, helping large businesses, SMEs, and sole traders with tax management.
With tax pooling, businesses that can’t meet their provisional tax liabilities can purchase tax from those that have overpaid. This is charged at a lower interest rate than the IRD’s use of money interest charges, and companies also avoid late payment penalties.
There are advantages on both sides of a tax pool. Companies that have overpaid into our pool can also earn more interest on their surplus tax than if they had paid the IRD directly.
Clients that experience volatility or pay substantial amounts of provisional tax (e.g., more than $100,000 at each date) can reduce their exposure to use of money interest by paying provisional tax into the Guardian Trust/TMNZ tax pool account at Inland Revenue (IRD) rather than directly into their IRD account.
In summary, here are all of the ways corporate tax pooling is great for large companies:
- Companies earn more interest on surplus tax than they would if they overpaid the IRD.
- Tax can be purchased if businesses have underpaid income tax.
- Tax can be swapped across provisional tax dates to reduce exposure to use of money interest.
- Overpaid tax can be refunded within three to five days — without filing a return.
- Businesses can access TMNZ’s in-house expertise for corporate tax pooling advice on how to optimise their provisional tax payments.
- Money is deposited in the TMNZ tax pooling account at IRD.
What’s more, by using the TMNZ tax pool, you and your clients are also helping to give back to New Zealand. All our profit is invested in the Whakatupu Aotearoa Foundation, supporting social and environmental causes.
Contact us today to find out how TMNZ tax pooling can help your clients.
How tax pooling can help your tax management
Meet Andy, a builder who has run his own business for three years. Things are going well, and he’s set to make a substantial profit in the current financial year. He’s well-paid and smart enough to set aside tax he owes with each payment. But clients don’t always pay him on time, causing some serious headaches.
Like many businesses, Andy experiences cashflow issues. He makes a profit but doesn’t always have enough funds in his account to pay provisional tax when it’s due.
What should Andy do? Grin and bear the Inland Revenue’s late payment penalties and use of money interest charges after missing his payment dates? Or seek a better option?
Luckily, Andy’s accountant Lisa knows all about tax pooling and how it can relieve the financial pressure.
Tax pooling explained
Andy asks his accountant how tax pooling works and some of its main benefits.
Lisa explains that tax pooling has been available to taxpayers for two decades, starting in 2003 when TMNZ became a registered provider with IR.
The accountant says tax pooling has clear benefits over traditional tax management:
- Taxpayers can choose to pay their liabilities in a time and manner that suits them, without having to worry about IR interest and penalties.
- They can make significant savings on use of money interest charged and eliminate late payment penalties if they miss or underpay provisional tax, or if they are reassessed by IR.
- When taxpayers overpay into the TMNZ tax pool, they can earn a much higher rate of interest on overpayment of funds than they would receive from the IR.
Who oversees TMNZ’s tax pool?
Lisa assures Andy that all payments made into TMNZ’s tax pool account at the IR are managed by an independent trustee, Guardian Trust.
Guardian Trust oversees the bank accounts into which taxpayers pay their money, as well as the transfer of funds from the TMNZ tax pool to Andy’s IR account.
Because the tax being transferred has been paid and date stamped as at the original due date, any penalties and interest are wiped once the payment is processed by the IR.
Companies of all sizes can use tax pooling
Tax pooling can help businesses of all sizes, from companies with thousands of employees down to sole traders. TMNZ’s tax pool is the largest and most established in the country.
Lisa’s research found two companies TMNZ has helped.
One company uses tax pooling to counteract fluctuating seasonal revenue:
“It takes away all those stresses. You’re passing it on to somebody else and saying, ‘take care of this for me, I don’t know what to do, we’ve got a shortage of cashflow’ and it’s the best way of putting more energy into your business and doing the things that you’re good at.”
The second company uses a tax pool as they need to invest in equipment regularly.
"With a business like ours, we are investing quite heavily into assets like cars, campers, and boats. Cash upfront is important [for] us to have.”
TMNZ has helped both companies manage working capital and mitigate the risk of fees and penalties.
“What is the cost of this?” Andy asks.
“Just TMNZ interest,” Lisa replies.
Tax pools can help with voluntary disclosures and audits
Lisa looks through Andy’s expected outgoings for the year. These range from the cost of living to many other expenses associated with owning a business.
The accountant realises that in a previous year, Andy made a mistake on one of his returns and must file a voluntary disclosure with the IR.
“How can Andy get ahead with the current year if he now has to pay an additional amount of tax for a past year?” Lisa wonders.
TMNZ can assist taxpayers who owe an increased amount of tax as a result of a voluntary disclosure or audit.
Tax pooling provides 60 days from the date the IR reassessment notice was issued to buy the tax payment he needs and send it to the IR.
The different tax types available to purchase are historic income tax payments, deferrable tax, and agreed delay tax, as well as other tax types such as GST, RWT, PIE, FBT, NRT, and DWT.
Lisa can use TMNZ to reduce the interest and late payment penalties cost of Andy’s voluntary disclosure.
For the current tax year, Lisa can set up either a Flexitax or Tax Finance arrangement to give him more flexibility and time to pay (up to 75 days past his terminal tax date for that tax year).
Lisa has other clients that are medium-large taxpayers with big bills and paydays. TMNZ’s Tax Deposit solution can help them.
Other advantages of tax pooling
There are several other advantages to using a tax pool:
- Excess funds paid into the pool can either be used for future dates and any other tax types where a reassessment has not been issued.
- There’s the option to sell surplus tax to a taxpayer who has underpaid to earn additional interest.
- The refund process is much faster than directly through the IR (within three to five days, and without having to file a return for the year).
Take back control
Take control of your tax management with TMNZ tax pooling — a more convenient way to meet your provisional tax obligations.
We offer solutions for all kinds of businesses and financial situations. If you’re new to paying provisional tax, check out our resources on managing tax and business cashflow here.
Ask your accountant about tax pooling options today, or get in touch with our team to find out more.