By Matt Edwards, Chief Executive Officer, TMNZ
On 28 May, Finance Minister Nicola Willis will deliver a Budget carrying more weight than most. Election year. A recovering but fragile economy. And a global environment that offers no margin for complacency, with rising oil prices, renewed trade tensions and persistent inflation risk.
This Budget isn’t just a fiscal statement. It’s a signal about New Zealand’s ambition for lifting productivity, innovation and growth. For the businesses and advisors we work with every day, that signal will matter more than ever.
Don’t mistake momentum for progress
The numbers had been moving in the right direction. Real GDP was forecast to rise to 3.4% in 2026/27, off the back of consecutive OCR cuts¹. But the RBNZ held in April, and the next move is now more likely up than down.²
The backdrop makes the Budget harder to write, and more important to get right. The Treasury’s Budget Policy Statement for 2026 is explicit: “addressing New Zealand’s longer-term productivity challenges” is a core goal, and the operating deficit is structural, meaning it “will not resolve itself as the economy recovers.”³ A supply shock doesn’t change that structural reality. If anything, it raises the stakes.
Three things that would move the needle
Having spent 18 years building FinTech businesses across the UK, Europe, and New Zealand, I’ve seen the gap between the quality of New Zealand’s businesses and the conditions they’re asked to operate in.
We have talented founders, capable operators, and genuinely innovative companies. But too often, those businesses are held back by policy settings that haven’t kept pace with the way modern business actually works. So, here’s what I think Budget 2026 needs to get right.
Deeper investment incentives. The 2025 Investment Boost (a tax incentive for productive asset investment) was a genuine step forward. The Treasury’s own BEFU noted it would “add impetus to business outlays on capital.”⁴ Budget 2026 needs to extend that logic: R&D support with real teeth, meaningful backing for technology adoption, and policy settings that make New Zealand a place where growth capital wants to stay.
A credible digital agenda. In my experience, the businesses that have successfully scaled are those that treated digital capability as a strategic priority, not an IT line item. Better digital infrastructure (across both public services and the private sector) makes fiscal consolidation easier to deliver and growth easier to sustain. Budget 2026 should be explicit about this.
Less compliance friction, more growth capacity. This one is close to home. The SMEs and advisory firms we work with spend a disproportionate amount of time managing compliance obligations (cashflow, provisional tax, IRD interactions) rather than growing. Smart policy here doesn’t just reduce burden; it frees up capital and time that flows directly into business performance. A great example of this is a new IRD policy change to extend the use of tax pooling to help resolve tax debt, benefitting businesses, their advisors and Government.
What businesses are actually looking for
This is an election Budget, and Finance Minister Nicola Willis will be balancing fiscal discipline against the reality that November is close and spending pressures are real.
Done well, that tension can produce a Budget that is both responsible and growth-oriented. Done poorly, it defers the hard structural decisions to the next term. The Treasury’s own forecasts warn that “weak productivity growth becomes the main constraint on the pace of the expansion” constraining potential output growth to around 1.5% annually.⁴
The senior leaders I speak with aren’t looking for a fiscal bonanza. They’re looking for confidence that the Government understands what it takes to build and grow a business in New Zealand right now, and that it’s willing to make the policy calls that support it.
The opportunity is real. Now let’s see whether we back it.
Get the Budget unpacked – the morning after it lands
On Friday 29 May, 10am to 11am, TMNZ is hosting a free webinar the morning after Budget day. Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold leads the analysis, joined by a panel including Matt Edwards (CEO, TMNZ), Olivia Blaylock (CEO, The Icehouse), Alyssa Laakmann (Executive Director, Growth NZ), and Matt Rama (TMNZ CCO). Hosted by business journalist Wilhelmina O’Keeffe.
We’ll cover what the Budget means for business investment, tax implications, and where New Zealand is actually headed. No spin, just actionable insight.
Free to attend. One hour. Built for advisors and business leaders who need to move fast.
Register at home.tmnz.co.nz/2026-tmnz-budget-webinar
Frequently asked questions
When is NZ Budget 2026 delivered?
Finance Minister Nicola Willis will deliver Budget 2026 on Thursday 28 May 2026.
Who is delivering Budget 2026?
Hon Nicola Willis, Minister of Finance, on behalf of the National-led coalition Government.
How can I get analysis of Budget 2026 for business?
TMNZ is running a free Budget 2026 webinar on Friday 29 May, 10am to 11am. Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold leads the analysis, joined by a panel of business leaders. Register for the Budget 2026 webinar.
Sources
- NZ Treasury, Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025, December 2025
- RBNZ, OCR on Hold at 2.25%, April 2026
- NZ Treasury, Budget Policy Statement 2026, December 2025
- NZ Treasury, Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025, May 2025