Tax Payment Trends for 2026: Supporting Business Growth Through Economic Recovery

Matt Edwards, Chief Executive Officer, TMNZ

As we move into 2026, New Zealand businesses are anticipating a turning point after navigating challenging economic conditions. Business confidence has surged to its highest level in nearly twelve years¹, driven by aggressive central bank rate cuts and growing optimism about the recovery ahead. For business and tax advisors, this presents both opportunity and complexity.

At TMNZ, we’re seeing firsthand how evolving payment patterns are reshaping the way businesses manage their tax obligations, and we’re committed to supporting your clients’ growth throughout this pivotal year.

The Economic Landscape: Recovery with Caution

The New Zealand economy is projected to grow with real GDP expected to increase by 1.7% in 2025/26, rising to 3.4% in 2026/27², a welcome improvement after recent contraction. Business sentiment is notably strong, with manufacturers particularly optimistic about the year ahead.

However, the recovery is nuanced. While lower interest rates are providing relief to indebted businesses and the rural economy remains relatively robust, our urban centres continue to face headwinds. Unemployment is expected to peak around 5.5% in the March 2026 quarter, and inflation remains at the upper limit of the Reserve Bank’s target band. Core Crown tax revenue is forecast to rise as a share of GDP, from 27.3% in 2025/26 to 28.4% in 2029/30³, largely driven by an improvement in the economy and the effect of wage growth moving people into higher tax bands. At TMNZ we have seen significant, double-digit year on year growth in tax deposits made by small and medium sized businesses, indicating that some businesses are expecting to be more profitable this year.

For advisors, this environment demands careful cashflow management. The gap between economic optimism and actual financial performance means that while businesses may be planning expansion, they’re also managing tighter margins and delayed investment decisions.

Emerging Tax Payment Trends

We’re observing several significant shifts in how advisors manage their clients’ tax obligations in 2026:

1. Provisional tax calculation has become critical. In those industries that are struggling, many advisors are suggesting their clients to pay provisional tax based on actual cashflow rather than overpaying based on an uplift from the prior year liability.
2. Tax pooling is gaining traction. More businesses are turning to tax pooling arrangements to manage provisional tax more efficiently, reducing the risk of underpayment penalties while avoiding the opportunity cost of overpayment. Tax advisors are increasingly encouraging their clients to pay their provisional tax through TMNZ. This trend reflects a more sophisticated approach to working capital management as businesses seek every advantage during the recovery phase.
3. Tax payments are under scrutiny. With Inland Revenue’s increased focus on businesses with tax debt, advisors are setting up payment arrangements for provisional tax, while ensuring that clients’ GST and PAYE obligations are met by the due date.

How TMNZ’s Solutions Support Business Growth

At TMNZ, we recognise that effective tax payment management isn’t just about compliance – it’s about enabling growth for your clients. Our payment solutions are designed for the challenges businesses face in 2026:

• Flexible payment scheduling allows you to align your client’s tax payments with their actual cashflow patterns, particularly valuable when revenue remains uncertain. Rather than forcing provisional tax payments to fit rigid schedules, our payment solutions match to business rhythm.
• Integrated payment tracking provides real-time visibility across provisional tax obligations. For advisors managing multiple entities or complex group structures, this consolidated view eliminates the risk of missed deadlines and provides the data needed for strategic cashflow planning.
• Payment reliability matters more than ever. As your clients invest in growth initiatives, the last thing they need is a missed payment disrupting tax compliance or damaging their relationship with Inland Revenue.

Looking Ahead

The economic outlook for 2026 represents a genuine opportunity for New Zealand businesses. Capital investment is forecast to increase 6.1% in calendar 2026⁴, its strongest pace of expansion since 2021. This is the environment where strategic tax payment management transforms from a compliance function into a growth enabler.

For advisors, the message is clear: businesses that can efficiently manage their tax obligations while preserving working capital for investment will be best positioned to capitalise on the recovery. At TMNZ, we’re committed to providing the payment tools that makes this possible.

As we navigate 2026 together, I encourage you to review your current tax payment processes. Are they supporting your clients’ growth objectives, or are they simply maintaining compliance? The difference matters, and TMNZ is here to help you bridge that gap.

¹ New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Survey of Business Opinion, January 2026

² New Zealand Treasury Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025

³ New Zealand Treasury Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025

⁴ BNZ Economic Forecast for 2026